Two elements that must be established first in any strategy are "where we are now" and "where we are going."
We start from "where we are going", by picturing the ideal world the campaign will bring. This should be derived from the vision of the organization that runs the campaign and the objectives of its program.
- A vision describes an ideal situation that an organization or program can achieve over the long term, or even within a lifetime. Examples of visions include "eliminating the negative impacts of climate change," "nurturing democracy," or "realizing social justice for girls."
- Objectives describe the desired state the organization wants to achieve within 12-18 months. Objectives must meet SMART criteria (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound).
To answer "where we are now," we need a baseline related to facts about the behavior, sentiments, and opinions of the people or groups we aim to influence. Our research provides this comprehensive overview of the situation and the people involved. We can also supplement this data by extrapolating from additional sources or utilizing proxies.
Using the “where we are going” statement, we describe what “solved” looks like by listing:
- What observable changes will indicate the problem has been solved?
- What aspects will no longer be visible once the problem is resolved?
We work backward from the desired outcome to construct a causal pathway, reaching the baseline of root cause(s) linked to current behaviors within specific population segments. The campaign outcome represents the necessary behavioral shift directly resulting from the campaign (though likely not immediate), and the subsequent desired impacts.
Here’s an example of the theory of change for our anti-deforestation campaign in 2019, entitled “Golongan Hutan”: